Effect of Global Climate Change on Wheat Production

Table 7.2: Classification of wheat mega-environments (ME) by the CIMMYT Global Wheat Program using qualitative (ME1 - 12) and geospatial criteria (ME1-6).

 

ME Latitude Wheat area
(m ha)
Criteria Temperature regime Sowing time Major biotic and abiotic stresses Representative locations/regions Change in ME due to climate change and consequences for germplasm development
N=negative; P=positive; U=unknown
(adopted from Hodson and White, 2008)

“SPRING” WHEAT

 

           

1

<40°

32.0

Low rainfall irrigated, coolest quarter (3 consecutive months) mean min temp > 3oC < 11oC

Temperate

Autumn

Resistance to lodging, SR, LR, YR, KB, Alternaria spp.

Yaqui Valley, Mexico; Indus Valley, Pakistan; Gangetic Valley, India; Nile Valley, Egypt

N–Rising temperatures result in large areas evolving to ME5
N–Reduced precipitation in subtropical regions restricts irrigation; supplementary irrigation results in temporary drought periods requiring germplasm with high yield and tolerance to drought (adapted to ME1 and ME4)
P–Reduced irrigation due to impact of elevated CO2 on water use efficiency
N-Increased insect problems

2A

<40°

4.0

High rainfall in summer; wettest quarter mean min temp >3oC < 16oC, wettest quarter (3 consecutive wettest months) precipitation > 250mm ; elevation . 1400m

Temperate

Autumn

As for ME1 + resistance to LR, YR, Septoria spp., PM, RDC, BYDV, sprouting

Highlands East Africa and Mexico, Andes

N–Rising temperatures result in some areas evolving to ME5
N–Reduced precipitation result in areas evolving to ME4

2B

<40°

3.0

High rainfall winter rain; coolest quarter  mean min  temp >3oC <16oC; elevation , 1400m 

Temperate

Autumn

As for ME1 + resistance to LR, YR, Septoria spp., PM, RDC, BYDV, sprouting

Mediterranean Coast, Caspian Sea

U–Changes in precipitation patterns in areas will have variable effects
N-Frequency of climate extremes  over years increase requiring germplasm with high yield potential, wide spectrum of disease resistance and tolerance to drought  

3

<40°

1.7

High rainfall acid soil; climate as in ME2 and pH < 5.2

Temperate

Autumn

As for ME2 + acid soil tolerance

Passo Fundo, Brazil

N–Rising temperatures result in large areas evolving to ME5
U–Changes in precipitation patterns in areas will have variable effects

4A

<40°

10.0

Low rainfall, winter rainfall dominant; coolest quarter  mean min temp >3oC <11oC; wettest quarter precipitation > 100 mm < 400mm

Temperate

Autumn

Resistance to drought, Septoria spp., YR, LR, SR, RDC, Hessian fly, Sawfly

Settat, Morocco; Aleppo, Syria; Diyarbakir, Turkey

N–Rising temperatures exacerbates water deficits, either further reducing yields or making production uneconomical
P–Reduced water deficits through impact of elevated CO2 on water use efficiency 

4B

<40°

5.8

Low rainfall, summer rainfall dominant; coolest quarter  mean min temp >3oC <11oC; wettest quarter precipitation> 200 mm  < 500mm

Temperate

Autumn

Resistance to drought, Septoria spp., LR, SR, Fusarium spp.

Marcos Juarez, Argentina

N–Changes in precipitation patterns likely to increase drought risk

4C

<40°

5.8

Mostly residual moisture ; coolest quarter mean min temp >3oC <16oC; wettest quarter precipitation > 100 mm  < 400mm

Hot

Autumn

Resistance to drought, and heat in seedling stage, SR

Indore, India

U–Changes in precipitation patterns in areas will have variable effects

5A

<40°

3.9

High rainfall/ irrigated, humid; coolest quarter mean min temp >11oC <16oC;

Hot

Autumn

Tolerance to heat, Helmintho-sporium spp., Fusarium spp., sprouting; in Brazil Bolivia and Paraguay wheat blast

Eastern Gangetic Plains in Nepal, India, Bangladesh; Londrina, Brazil

N–Rising temperatures result in large areas becoming unsuitable for wheat; cropping systems and agronomy practices allowing early sowing of wheat paramount
N–Increasing biotic stress
U–Elevated CO2 may increase water use efficiency, but the same mechanism implies increased canopy temperature, which likely would exacerbate heat stress

5B

<40°

3.2

Irrigated , low humidity; coolest quarter  mean min temp >11oC <16oC;

Hot

Autumn

Resistance to heat and SR, LR

Gezira, Sudan; Kano, Nigeria

N–Rising temperatures result in large areas becoming unsuitable for wheat
N–Increasing biotic stress
U–Elevated CO2 may increase water use efficiency, but the same mechanism implies increased canopy temperature, which likely would exacerbate heat stress

6

>40°

11.0

Moderate rainfall/ summer dominant; high latitude . 45oN; coolest quarter  mean min temp  <- 13oC; warmest quarter mean min temp> 9oC;

Temperate

S

Resistance to drought, SR, LR, Tan spot, Scab, photoperiod sensitivity

Kazakhstan; Siberia; Harbin, China

P–Rising temperatures allow wheat production in higher latitudes - wheat area expansion likely
P-Lengthen growing season permits marginal areas to become productive
P–Reduced risk of winter-kill allows conversion to more productive winter wheat

Facultative Wheat

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

7 A

<40°

6.0

Irrigated

Moderate cold

Autumn

Rapid grain fill, resistance to cold, YR, LR, PM, BYD, Bunt, LS

Henan, China;

U–Reduced cold stress allows growing fall sown spring wheat, possibly reducing yield potential but shortening growing season offering more options for diversifying cropping systems
P–Reduced irrigation due to impact of elevated CO2 on water use efficiency

7 B

<40°

3.0

Irrigated, often only supplementary irrigation

Moderate cold

Autumn

YR, Bunt, LR, SR, LS

Turkey; Iran; Central Asia; Afghanistan

U–Reduced cold stress allows growing fall sown spring wheat, possibly reducing yield potential but shortening growing season offering more options for diversifying cropping systems
P–Reduced irrigation due to impact of elevated CO2 on water use efficiency
N-Supplementary irrigation with temporary exposure to drought requires germplasm adapted to ME7 and ME9 adaptation to ME

8A

<40°

0.2

More than 600 mm rainfall, medium cold, photosensitive

Moderate cold

Autumn

YR, Septoria spp., PM, Fusarium, RDC

Chillan, Chile

U–Reduced cold stress allows growing spring wheat, possibly reducing yield potential but shortening growing season
U–Increasing biotic stress

8B

<40°

0.5

More than 600 mm rainfall

Moderate cold

Autumn

YR, Bunt, LR, RDC, PM

Transitional zones and Trace, Turkey

U–Changes in precipitation patterns in areas will have variable effects
N-Frequency of climate extremes  over years increase requiring germplasm with high yield potential, wide spectrum of disease resistance and tolerance to drought  

9

<40°

6.8

Low rainfall < 400 mm, winter /spring rainfall dominant

Moderate cold

Autumn

Resistance to drought, cold, heat at grain fill, Yr, Bunt, LR, SR

West and Central Asia; North Africa (mainly non-dwarf cultivars grown)

U–Reduced cold stress allows growing spring wheat, possibly reducing yield potential but shortening growing season
U–Changes in precipitation patterns in areas will have variable effects
P–Reduced water deficits through impact of elevated CO2 on water use efficiency
N–Rising temperatures exacerbates water deficits, either further reducing yields or making production uneconomical

“Winter” Wheat

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10A

<40°

4.6

Irrigated

Severe cold

Autumn

Resistance to winterkill, YR, LR, PM, BYD,

Beijing, China

P–Warmer winters reduce severity of winter-kill, increasing yields
N–Warmer spring and summer hasten grain-filling
P–Reduced irrigation due to impact of elevated CO2 on water use efficiency 

10B

<40°

1.6

Often supplementary irrigation

Severe cold

Autumn

Resistance to winterkill, YR, BYD, Bunt, Smut, RDC, Nematodes

Turkey; Iran; Central Asia

P–Warmer winters reduce severity of winter-kill, increasing yields
N–Warmer spring and summer hasten grain-filling
P–Reduced irrigation due to impact of elevated CO2 on water use efficiency

11A

>40°

Area in LDC insignificant

High rainfall/ irrigated, long season

Severe cold

Autumn

Resistance to Septoria spp., Fusarium spp., YR, LR, PM, RDC, BYD,

Central and Western Europe; NW USA

P–Warmer winters reduce severity of winter-kill

11B

<40°

Area in LDC insignificant

High rainfall/ irrigated, short season

Severe cold

Autumn

Resistance to LR, SR, PM, Fusarium, Septoria, BYD, winterkill, sprouting

SE Europe, North Korea, China

P–Warmer winters reduce severity of winter-kill

12

<40°

7.9

Low rainfall between 300-450 mm

Severe cold

Autumn

Resistance to winterkill, drought, heat during grain fill, YR, bunts, Nematodes, RDC, Zinc deficiency,   in Turkey and Iran  mainly non-dwarf varieties grown

Ankara, Turkey; West and Central Asia; China

P–Warmer winters reduce severity of winter-kill
P–Reduced water deficits through impact of elevated CO2 on water use efficiency
N–Increased frequency of years with severe drought
N increased insect problems

Moisture regime refers to rainfall just before and during the crop cycle. High = >500mm; Low = <500mm
Temperature regime: Hot = mean temperature of the coolest month > 17.5oC; cold = <5.0oC
Biotic stresses: LR=leaf rust; SR=stem rust, LR=leaf rust, YR=yellow (stripe) rust, PM=powdery mildew, BYD=barley yellow dwarf, LS=Ustilago tritici; KB=Karnal Bunt; RDC=root disease complex